The Q3 2026 IPA Bellwether shows UK marketing budgets rising at their fastest rate in more than two years, with main media advertising at a nine-year high. For anyone buying airtime, space or sites in the next quarter, that changes the negotiation.
What’s happened
The IPA published its Q3 2026 Bellwether Report this morning, and it is the most upbeat reading in a while. A net balance of +14.3% of companies revised their total marketing budgets upwards during the quarter, up from +6.9% in Q2 and the highest figure since Q2 2024. Main media advertising, the part that matters most to our readers, posted a net balance of +9.8%, which the IPA describes as a nine-year high, and for the first time since the sub-category data began every main media channel grew at once: other online +17.2%, video +9.8%, out-of-home +3.6%, audio +1.1% and published brands +0.8%. The report, compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence, also nudged its UK adspend forecast for 2026 up to 2.8%, but cut 2027 to 1.3% from 2.3%. The full release is on the IPA website.
Why it matters to media buyers and marketing managers
Bellwether is a survey of intent, not a record of money spent, but the sales houses read it the same way we do: as a signal of how hard advertisers will compete for Q4 inventory. When budgets are being revised up across the board, the pool of unsold space in the golden quarter shrinks, and the late deals that have been easy to find for much of 2026 get harder to find in the peak weeks of November and early December.
The detail is more useful than the headline, though. Video is strong, so expect TV and broadcaster VOD to be tighter and dearer around the big retail weekends. Out-of-home has turned positive for the first time in the series, so the OOH owners will feel less pressure to discount prime roadside and rail packs. But audio at +1.1% and published brands at +0.8% are only just above flat. Radio and print are still, in practice, a buyer’s market, and that is where the best late-space value will sit this quarter.
For an auction house with a December sale, that means the premium magazine positions and national press runs you want are still negotiable, even while the TV market firms up. For a sports promoter with a fight night in the diary, it means regional radio and transport OOH can be bought late and sharply, while the broadcast sponsorship spots around the event will cost more than they did in spring. For a claims firm or other specialist business, the lesson is that response channels are not where the competition is heading, so hold your nerve on rates.
This is the situation VCM is built for. We spend our days talking to the sales houses, the national and regional publishers and the OOH owners, so we know which weeks are genuinely tight and which are being talked up. We negotiate late space on our clients’ behalf against what the market is actually doing, not against the rate card, and we move money between channels when one of them firms up.
What we’d do
First, lock any TV or BVOD you genuinely need for the last six weeks of the year now. With video budgets at a two-year high, waiting for a late deal in late November is a gamble we would not take with a client’s launch or sale date. Book the must-have weeks and keep a smaller late-space float for the quieter weeks either side.
Second, lean into radio and print while they are soft. Ask publishers for the positions and the added-value they would not have offered in a stronger year, and ask the radio sales houses for station-level deals rather than network packages. We rebuild station-by-station plans for clients exactly so the discount lands where the audience is.
Third, plan with 2027 in mind. The same report that lifted 2026 cut its 2027 adspend forecast, so the budget you have agreed for Q4 may be the most you have for a while. Spend it on the channels that build demand as well as capture it, which is also the IPA’s own warning about becoming hooked on short-term activation.
How VCM can help
We buy late space across press, radio, TV, out-of-home and digital every week, so we can tell you where the Q4 market is tight and where it is still soft before you commit a penny. See how we approach TV advertising and print advertising, or get in touch on 0333 577 1848 or at James@vcmweb.co.uk and we’ll tell you what your Q4 plan should cost right now, no obligation.
